Serena, Not Nadal To Win this Year's French?

She lost in the first round four straight times in tournaments leading up to the French. She's through to the round of 16, but her play in the first three rounds has been shaky at best, riddled with unforced errors. She seems about as uninterested in tournaments other than the Grand Slams as I am, and not that interested in the first weeks of Grand Slams either, at least as little as she can get away with and still make it through to the second week.

But Serena Williams is a great closer--a great closer of matches and even better closer of tournaments. Once she sees the finish line, watch out. Now the trophy ceremony at Roland Garros is much closer in sight that we're to the second week. Venus Williams and Elena Dementieva already are out. Ivanovic has looked wobbly all season and will be lucky to make it past a very tough-looking Azarenka. Safina has yet to prove herself in a major event by winning one, which can be a very high hurdle to jump. Just ask Jelena Jankovic, whose outstanding play has yet to earn her a singles Grand Slam event. So, who does that really leave as a potential competitor?

Ah yes, what's her name. Maria Sharapova. Another great closer of tournaments who would dearly love to earn a career Grand Slam by winning this one. She might surprise us too--only would anyone really be surprised if she did despite her injuries, given her great fighting spirit?

Yes, Kuznetsova is still in it, but she's been a tremendous underperformer thus far in her career given all her talents. No, one Grand Slam singles championship is nothing to hang one's shame in having, but still, I'd be very surprised to see her win this one so late in her career.

So what if I'm wrong and Serena doesn't bag this one? Could this be the year of another one-Slam wonder along the lines of Iva Majoli? Time soon will tell.

As for the men, the French has been very kind in years past to young men players. That one-time Grand Slam wonder Michael Chang comes to mind, as does the dreamy Mats Wilander. Rafa Nadal also comes to mind in that category as well. Only he's fast approaching 23 years old without ever having lost a match at the French. Most of the commentators so far seem to act like his winning a fifth championship is pretty much a done deal, even though Federer beat Nadal in a warm-up tournmament in Madrid just before the French. I don't understand the references to the altitude differences in Madrid. It's not really at that different an elevation than Paris, is it? OK, so Nadal won what, like three other warm-up clay tournaments before that, it's true. And he's dominated the tour, Federer included, for a while now--no small feat given Federer's outsized talent and record. But it is actually possible Nadal may lose a match at the French, even though he's never lost two sets in one match there. And if he does, my money is on some up and coming youngster rather than the overly intense Federer, who seems to want to win the last Grand Slam he hasn't won yet too much for his own good.

Why not Juan Martin Del Potro? Talk about outsized. The guy's what, tall enough to touch the moon practically? He has exactly the kind of presence that might be able to counterbalance Nadal's fleetness and fight. I guess the big question is does he, or someone else have the fight? Like maybe Del Potro's next opponent if not Del Potro--another giant by the name of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Talk about fight. Injuries and dips in the ranking have prevented Tsonga from competing in his home country's premier event much before. At the advanced age of 24 (or at least advancing age for a professional tennis player), this is just his second French Open. Maybe he'll make it a very memorable one.

One commentator today speculated that Andy Roddick might end the aughts on an exciting note for Americans the way Chang ended the 80s by winning the French in '89, and the way Agassi ended the 90s by winning Roland Garros in '99. It would be a fun way to close the decade for sure. But let's not get too greedy here. Advancing to the round of 16 in any Grand Slam is no small achievement, and at the French, this year is the first time Roddick added that feat to his long list of victories. My guess though is that Roddick, despite all of his talent, will remain a one-hit Grand Slam wonder.

I think Serena's a much better bet to close out the oughts at Roland Garros in winning style.